GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2021 - MEASURING PEACE IN A COMPLEX WORLD

•  The first domain: Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, which includes six indicators capturing the state, severity, and duration of conflicts drawing on the legitimacy of governments, sectarian strife, established peace, potential external conflicts and their impact on the state to be evaluated.
•  The second domain: Societal Safety and Security, which includes ten indicators regarding development, rule of law, equality in different societies, challenges posed by terrorism, instability, and the violence faced by the state to be evaluated, which in turn has an impact on social safety and security.
•  The third domain: Militarization, which includes seven indicators that measure the extent of military intervention in state authority, oppression of society, military expenditures, arms imports, and destructive capabilities.

1. Overall results;
2. Results of each of the three GPI domains;
3. Results in select countries, including the first and last ranking countries on the GPI and the permanent Member States of the UN Security Council;
4. The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on peacemaking;
5. The order of IMCTC Member States in the 2021 GPI.

•  A slight decline in the global peacefulness, as recorded in the current 2021 GPI edition, by 0.07% compared to 2020 GPI edition, in 73 states, and an improvement in the peacefulness of 87 states;
•  A decline in the global peacefulness by 2% since the first issuance of GPI over fifteen years, and a decline in the peacefulness according to 15 of the 23 indicators of GPI over the period of 2008–2021;
•  A decline in peacefulness across 6 of the 9 regions: Sub-Saharan African, Russia and Eurasia, South and Central America, the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, and North America, which recorded the highest decline due to increased crime, civil unrest, and political instability;
•  An improvement in peacefulness in 3 of the 9 regions: Europe, South Asia, MENA and North Africa, which recorded the highest improvement, but yet remained the least ranking globally.

•  The first domain, Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, is the most deteriorating by 6.2%, including five indicators of a total six. The number of deaths from internal organized conflict indicator is the only one that witnessed an improvement in this domain.
•  The second domain, Social Safety and Security, showed less deterioration than the first by 2.5%, including nine indicators of a total eleven. The impact of terrorism indicator is considered the most deteriorating, specifically in 90 out of 163 assessed states.
•  The third domain, Militarization, is the only one to show an improvement by 4.2%, including 111 states, while only 50 states experienced deterioration. All indicators of this domain showed improvement, except for the weapons imports indicator that showed obvious deterioration.

• ​The ten countries at the top of the GPI are ranked in the following order: Iceland, Denmark, Portugal, Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland, Ireland, Czech Republic, Finland, and Norway. Iceland remained on top of the GPI since 2008;
• The ten countries at the bottom of the GPI are ranked in the following order: Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Libya, Central Africa, and Russia. Afghanistan has fallen at the bottom of the past four GPI editions;
• The big powers, which are the five permanent Member States of the UN Security Council, are ranked on the GPI in the following order: UK (33), France (55), China (100), USA (122), and Russia (154).

• The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in acute economic crises, which led to protests and demonstrations in many countries all over the world. 5,000 violent events were recorded between January 2020 and April 2021.
• Given the unclear vision so far regarding ending the pandemic in the near future, the GPI concludes that the economic and political unrest may continue, and, thus, warns against triggering demonstrations and protests that might lead to violent acts probably affecting the global peacefulness.

• 1st grouping: states ranking the first fourteen on the GPI, marked by a dark green color.
• 2nd grouping: states ranking from 15 to 58 on the GPI, marked by a light green color.
• 3rd grouping: states ranking from 59 to 123 on the GPI, marked by a yellow color.
• 4th grouping: states ranking from 124 to 150 on the GPI, marked by an orange color.
• 5th grouping: states ranking from 151 to 163 on the GPI, marked by a red color.

• 1st grouping does not include any IMCTC countries.
• 2nd grouping includes 7 IMCTC countries.
• 3rd grouping includes 15 IMCTC countries.
• 4th grouping includes 11 IMCTC countries.
• 5th grouping includes 5 IMCTC countries.
• 3 IMCTC countries were not included in the 2021 GPI rankings: Brunei Darussalam, Maldives Republic, and the Union of the Comoros.

1. The economic foundations of the study;
2. The overall results of the economic impact;
3. The results of the economic impact in IMCTC countries.

• Direct costs are the direct expenditures resulting from acts of violence.
• Indirect costs are the losses that accrue after acts of violence.
• The multiplier effect represents the foregone earnings that would have been achieved if there was peace and would have come from investment of such expenses. With peace, costs of containing violence can be invested in more productive alternatives that would boost the economy and produce more cash proceeds and social returns. The following table provides definitions and examples of these components. This study includes two types of results:

1. Results associated with direct and indirect costs. These results calculate the percentage of overall losses of a country to its GDP and rank the country amongst the 163 countries assessed accordingly. Countries are ra​nked according to the level of suffering experienced from violent acts.
2. ​Results taking the multiplier effect into account, including the overall score, or the so-called “total economic impact” of each country under assessment. These results indicate the multiplier effect on the “individual”.
   

​

• One IMCTC country of the 1st grouping, Bangladesh, incurred GDP losses of 3%.
• 10 IMCTC countries of the 2nd grouping incurred GDP losses ranging between 3% – 5%.
• 13 IMCTC countries of the 3rd grouping incurred GDP losses ranging between 5% – 8%.
• 6 IMCTC countries of the 4th grouping incurred GDP losses ranging between 8% – 15%.
• 8 IMCTC countries of the 5th grouping incurred GDP losses of more than 15%.
• In line with the GPI results, 3 IMCTC countries were not included rankings: Brunei Darussalam, Maldives Republic, and the Union of the Comoros.
  
  
  
  

1. WELL-FUNCTIONING GOVERNMENT: A well-functioning government delivers high-quality public and civil services, engenders trust and participation, demonstrates political stability and upholds the rule of law.
2. EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES: Peaceful countries tend to ensure equity in access to resources, such as education, health, and equity in income distribution.
3. FREE FLOW OF INFORMATION: Free and independent media disseminates information in a way that leads to greater knowledge and helps individuals, businesses and civil society make better decisions. This leads to better outcomes and more rational responses in times of crisis.
4. GOOD RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBOURS: Peaceful relations with other countries are as important as good relations between groups within a country. Countries with positive external relations are more peaceful and tend to be more politically stable, have better functioning governments.
5. HIGH LEVELS OF HUMAN CAPITAL: A skilled human capital base reflects the extent to which societies educate citizens and promote the development of knowledge, thereby improving economic productivity, care for the young, political participation and social capital.
6. ACCEPTANCE OF THE RIGHTS OF OTHERS: Peaceful countries often have formal laws that guarantee basic human rights and freedoms, equality between different races, religions, and social statuses, gender equality, and labor rights. Positive Peace is established by the acceptance of the rights of others.
7. LOW LEVELS OF CORRUPTION: In societies with high levels of corruption, resources are inefficiently allocated, often leading to a lack of funding for essential services and civil unrest. Low corruption can enhance confidence and trust in institutions.
8. SOUND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: The strength of economic conditions as well as the formal institutions that support the operation of the private sector. Business competitiveness and economic productivity are both associated with the most peaceful countries.