Even though terrorism is steadily declining, it persists for reasons related to the nature of today’s world and the changes that are sweeping it. Terrorism killed no one in any of 121 countries in 2022, the highest number since 2007. According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) of 2023, the MENA region had the highest success rate in countering terrorism, with terrorist fatalities decreasing from 57% in 2016 to only 12% in 2022.
To maintain such a success, we have to look ahead, identify the challenges that may come in the way, and address them as soon as possible before they turn into actual crises. Furthermore, the outcomes of the Fourth Industrial Revolution should be a top priority for those in charge of countering terrorism because they provide opportunities and increase capacity. At the same time, they pose challenges that should be identified earlier in order to develop the appropriate strategic plans required to overcome them.
Incorporating nanotechnology, biotechnology, and information technology has enabled the digital and virtual worlds to merge through robots, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, cybersecurity, cloud services, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, big data, and 3D printing.
Despite the promising opportunities for human prosperity and advancement that such technologies provide, we must not overlook the threats posed by terrorist organizations that exploit these prospects, as well as how states can use such technologies to combat terrorism.
Even though low-tech terrorist attacks will continue to be a dominant pattern of terrorism in the short and long run, new technologies may provide terrorists with new tools and techniques in the future. Terrorist individuals and networks are expected to incorporate technological advancement into their policies, plans, and methods of operation, enticed by the ease of access to primary military applications online through commercial channels.Nanotechnology, for example, can be used to create smaller, more powerful explosives; biotechnology can be used in labs to create new viruses; and 3-D printing technology can be used to manufacture and camouflage weapons.
Terrorist organizations that take advantage of the communications technology opportunities provided by the ICT revolution have already used some of these technologies. It is estimated that 65 non-state actors (including terrorist organizations) are now capable of deploying drones capable of flying up to 1,500km in swarms with little training and using them in terrorist attacks, such as the Houthis who used the same technique to attack civilian structures in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Unfortunately, the international community has not paid enough attention to counter-drone-terrorism measures.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution’s outcomes create a favorable environment for cyberterrorism. Even though it is unknown if someone was killed as a result of cyberterrorism, caution is advised. The worst has yet to happen. The world is increasingly connecting its people and infrastructure, particularly in large developed cities. This opens up a loophole that terrorist organizations, if efficient and experienced, can exploit to inflict death and destruction. Cyberterrorism targets financial and banking systems, health records, remote-control routes and bridges, public transportation systems, and electric power grids.
Meanwhile, the same technologies can be employed in countering terrorism; for example, pathogens can be detected in water supplies and harmful toxins can be removed from the atmosphere using nanotechnology.
Big data AI analysis offers promising opportunities for counter-terrorism. More importantly, preemptive action is critical in countering potential terrorist acts, which necessitates tough political decisions to increase counter-terrorism budgets.